Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5400 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 13:31	RDU 15:02	17%	7%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 08:43 → RDU 10:10DL 1699	4h 36m	99%	92%
Southwest Details →	CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 08:10 → RDU 09:30WN 1067	4h 00m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	CVG 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 3349	3h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795	5h 40m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → RDU 11:43DL 2052	4h 34m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	5h 38m	98%	89%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → RDU 12:49AA 4756 · flown by Republic	6h 49m	99%	89%
United Details →	CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic	1h 53m Newark	EWR 10:00 → RDU 11:52UA 3631 · flown by Republic	5h 52m	98%	89%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616	7h 01m	100%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CVG 17:07 → DCA 18:53AA 5199 · flown by PSA	1h 07m Washington	DCA 20:00 → RDU 21:12AA 2083	4h 05m	69%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON