tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1600 at 07:31, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1600 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:31 RSW 09:46 10% 5% 10.3% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089 4h 09m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 00m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 18m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 01m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 7h 44m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268 7h 22m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → RSW 11:00WN 1082 5h 30m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 20m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 02m 98% 66%
AmericanDetails → CVG 05:44 → PHL 07:34AA 5438 · flown by PSA 3h 26m Philadelphia PHL 11:00 → RSW 13:55AA 2439 8h 11m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:12 → DCA 12:59AA 5145 · flown by PSA 1h 00m Washington DCA 13:59 → RSW 16:37AA 2454 5h 25m 75% 45%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016 55m Chicago MDW 09:00 → RSW 12:45WN 3481 4h 45m 54% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON