Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 966 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 966 CVG 06:40 → SEA 08:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 508 CVG 17:07 → SEA 19:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 966 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:40	SEA 08:34	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
AS 302 Alaska Flight history →	CVG 07:00	SEA 09:00	17%	3%	0.7%	81%
AS 508 Alaska Flight history →	CVG 17:07	SEA 19:07	26%	5%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	59m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 15m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	CVG 19:43 → MSP 20:41DL 703	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 15m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	7h 18m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON