Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:20	TPA 17:29	19%	6%	17.2%	83%
F9 1668 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 11:00	TPA 13:15	21%	7%	17.2%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	4h 33m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120	5h 30m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696	8h 04m	99%	72%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	8h 12m	100%	72%
United Details →	CVG 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 3489 · flown by Republic	1h 26m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683	5h 32m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	5h 30m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	6h 31m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	5h 58m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CVG 11:19 → DFW 12:45AA 1713	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:32 → TPA 17:04AA 2813	5h 45m	73%	40%
American Details →	CVG 18:25 → MIA 21:04AA 3487 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Miami	MIA 22:09 → TPA 23:15AA 3188	4h 50m	70%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON