Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 393 Allegiant Flight history →	CVG 07:00	VPS 07:49	8%	4%	0.7%	89%
G4 1988 Allegiant	CVG 19:00	VPS 19:49	15%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 55m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092	6h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	4h 55m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	CVG 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 3349	55m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → VPS 09:30WN 4353	3h 30m	92%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 41m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 13:29 → ATL 15:04DL 3149	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 13m	98%	84%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 08:29 → VPS 11:01AA 4153 · flown by Envoy	6h 01m	96%	84%
American Details →	CVG 07:41 → CLT 09:16AA 2967	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 11:21 → VPS 12:02AA 2671	5h 21m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON