Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3012 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3012 DAL 08:20 → AMA 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1260 DAL 21:55 → AMA 23:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3012 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:20	AMA 09:35	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 380 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:35	AMA 13:50	16%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 4127 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	AMA 17:45	28%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 1260 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:55	AMA 23:15	31%	7%	0.6%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON