Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1261 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1261 DAL 06:00 → ATL 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1263 DAL 16:30 → ATL 19:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 4% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1261 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	ATL 09:05	6%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 516 Delta Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ATL 09:17	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	DAL 10:07	ATL 13:16	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 1766 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:30	ATL 12:35	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1115 Delta Flight history →	DAL 12:19	ATL 15:31	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	DAL 15:59	ATL 19:14	22%	6%	0.7%	72%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	DAL 18:39	ATL 22:00	22%	7%	0.7%	78%
WN 1264 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:15	ATL 22:25	32%	8%	0.6%	36%
WN 1263 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	ATL 19:40	35%	8%	0.6%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON