Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1265 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1265 DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1515 DAL 21:45 → AUS 22:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1265 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:35	AUS 08:40	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 4172 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:00	AUS 10:00	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 930 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:05	AUS 12:05	16%	3%	0.7%	68%
WN 931 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:20	AUS 13:20	20%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 2411 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:15	AUS 16:15	28%	6%	0.6%	46%
WN 1269 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:00	AUS 19:00	33%	8%	0.6%	58%
WN 1515 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	AUS 22:50	33%	8%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON