Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1519 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1519 DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 1277 DAL 16:40 → BNA 18:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1519 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	BNA 08:45	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 434 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:20	BNA 10:10	9%	2%	0.6%	72%
WN 5062 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:00	BNA 11:50	12%	2%	0.6%	73%
WN 1275 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:25	BNA 14:15	21%	4%	0.6%	71%
WN 526 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:40	BNA 15:30	24%	4%	0.6%	56%
WN 5047 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:00	BNA 16:50	28%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 1278 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	BNA 23:35	33%	8%	0.6%	45%
WN 277 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:55	BNA 19:45	34%	9%	0.6%	38%
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:40	BNA 18:30	35%	8%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON