Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 13:05, is the safest bet: 41% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 25% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4076 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:55	BUR 13:05	20%	6%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	5h 40m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	6h 50m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	1h 55m Sacramento	SMF 11:10 → BUR 12:30WN 3765	6h 50m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	8h 25m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → BUR 12:10WN 1529	6h 45m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	7h 15m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 11:55 → BUR 13:10WN 4184	6h 25m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:45 → ABQ 11:30WN 1253	2h 20m Albuquerque	ABQ 13:50 → BUR 14:50WN 4965	6h 05m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → BUR 15:50WN 4540	4h 45m	65%	41%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:50 → PHX 19:15WN 4258	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 20:25 → BUR 21:50WN 3248	5h 00m	69%	39%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:45 → SFO 09:30WN 485	50m San Francisco	SFO 10:20 → BUR 11:40WN 3635	5h 55m	25%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON