Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1280 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1280 DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1284 DAL 16:45 → BWI 20:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1280 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	BWI 09:55	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	BWI 11:15	9%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 2595 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:40	BWI 15:35	23%	3%	0.6%	56%
WN 1283 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:10	BWI 19:10	31%	6%	0.7%	60%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	BWI 00:50	37%	6%	0.7%	29%
WN 1284 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:45	BWI 20:45	38%	8%	0.7%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON