Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3257 at 11:05 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3257 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:05	COS 12:00	20%	3%	0.6%	71%
WN 4786 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:20	COS 20:15	35%	8%	0.6%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → COS 08:55WN 3419	3h 55m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 08:50 → COS 11:45WN 4326	6h 40m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → COS 10:30WN 4142	5h 30m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → COS 12:32DL 2427	7h 27m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 12:30 → COS 14:00WN 1230	6h 30m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	3h 35m Denver	DEN 13:20 → COS 14:05WN 1228	6h 25m	99%	66%
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:10 → LAS 20:00WN 1323	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → COS 01:20 +1WN 2214	7h 10m	97%	63%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:30 → HOU 11:45WN 23	2h 55m Houston	HOU 14:40 → COS 16:00WN 4385	6h 30m	100%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → COS 01:20 +1WN 2214	5h 50m	67%	43%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:20 → DEN 19:50WN 1303	1h 05m Denver	DEN 20:55 → COS 21:50WN 3811	4h 30m	69%	43%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:20 → PHX 15:45WN 4129	55m Phoenix	PHX 16:40 → COS 19:20WN 3064	5h 00m	63%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON