Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3351 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3351 DAL 06:10 → DCA 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1295 DAL 18:50 → DCA 22:45 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3351 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	DCA 10:00	7%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 2559 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:20	DCA 13:15	19%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 4195 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:35	DCA 17:30	31%	9%	0.7%	43%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:00	DCA 20:55	37%	12%	0.7%	24%
WN 1295 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:50	DCA 22:45	40%	13%	0.7%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON