Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1296 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1296 DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1303 DAL 18:20 → DEN 19:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1296 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	DEN 07:00	4%	1%	0.7%	95%
WN 239 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:40	DEN 09:45	11%	2%	0.7%	69%
WN 1300 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:45	DEN 10:45	15%	2%	0.7%	74%
WN 4394 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:45	DEN 11:45	18%	3%	0.7%	69%
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:35	DEN 12:35	23%	3%	0.7%	78%
WN 1346 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:10	DEN 14:10	32%	4%	0.7%	53%
WN 1305 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	DEN 23:00	32%	6%	0.6%	62%
WN 1304 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:25	DEN 20:45	33%	7%	0.6%	58%
WN 1303 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:20	DEN 19:50	33%	7%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON