Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1309 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1309 DAL 06:05 → ELP 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3373 DAL 21:45 → ELP 22:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1309 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ELP 06:45	3%	1%	0.7%	91%
WN 1310 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:00	ELP 11:40	12%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 4396 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:05	ELP 13:45	20%	4%	0.6%	76%
WN 1312 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:20	ELP 19:05	30%	8%	0.7%	67%
WN 3373 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	ELP 22:35	33%	9%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON