Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 11m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	7h 59m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 47m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	7h 35m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	54m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	5h 30m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON