Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 57 DAL 20:30 → HOU 21:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	4%	1%	1.9%	93%
WN 3 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:30	HOU 08:45	7%	2%	1.8%	92%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	HOU 09:45	7%	2%	2.5%	84%
WN 23 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:30	HOU 11:45	10%	3%	3.3%	82%
WN 19 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:30	HOU 12:45	12%	3%	2.0%	80%
WN 29 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:30	HOU 14:45	20%	5%	1.9%	51%
WN 37 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:30	HOU 16:50	21%	6%	2.0%	66%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:30	HOU 18:45	26%	6%	1.4%	60%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	HOU 17:45	27%	6%	1.4%	68%
WN 63 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:00	HOU 23:15	30%	7%	0.9%	55%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	HOU 21:40	33%	6%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON