Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4531 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4531 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:35	IND 10:45	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 2250 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:55	IND 23:05	34%	9%	0.6%	40%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	1h 40m Denver	DEN 08:40 → IND 13:00WN 1552	6h 00m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 20m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → IND 12:20WN 537	4h 20m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877	5h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 31m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	2h 40m Houston	HOU 09:50 → IND 13:05WN 1988	6h 05m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:35 → MCI 10:10WN 1343	3h 20m Kansas City	MCI 13:30 → IND 16:00WN 1432	6h 25m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	7h 42m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → IND 17:22DL 3126	6h 15m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277	50m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → IND 22:55WN 539	4h 00m	57%	44%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:50 → SAN 12:45WN 1394	50m San Diego	SAN 13:35 → IND 20:35WN 3505	7h 45m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON