Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1317 at 13:20, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1317 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:20	JAX 16:40	28%	6%	0.8%	35%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 20m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → JAX 12:35WN 541	4h 35m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	4h 55m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280	1h 40m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → JAX 13:35WN 970	6h 35m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265	2h 00m Austin	AUS 10:40 → JAX 14:10WN 320	5h 35m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:20 → BNA 10:10WN 434	3h 30m Nashville	BNA 13:40 → JAX 16:15WN 542	6h 55m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → JAX 16:27DL 2720	5h 20m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	7h 10m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	5h 54m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	54m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	4h 30m	74%	57%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 3563	55m Denver	DEN 13:30 → JAX 18:50WN 4384	6h 15m	71%	50%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:00 → STL 14:45WN 1412	50m St Louis	STL 15:35 → JAX 18:35WN 3933	4h 35m	67%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON