Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1318 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1318 DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1128 DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1318 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	LAS 06:50	4%	1%	0.7%	94%
WN 2964 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:25	LAS 08:10	8%	2%	0.7%	73%
WN 695 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:45	LAS 09:35	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 486 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:40	LAS 11:25	17%	3%	0.7%	62%
WN 3061 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:05	LAS 13:45	30%	6%	0.7%	48%
WN 4378 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:45	LAS 23:35	35%	9%	0.7%	38%
WN 1323 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:10	LAS 20:00	36%	10%	0.7%	41%
WN 1322 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:35	LAS 17:25	38%	10%	0.7%	49%
WN 1128 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	LAS 21:15	40%	10%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON