Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2182 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2182 DAL 06:15 → LGA 10:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 4021 DAL 16:00 → LGA 20:25 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2182 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:15	LGA 10:30	9%	2%	0.9%	77%
WN 3664 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	LGA 12:50	15%	3%	0.8%	67%
WN 4478 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:20	LGA 16:45	30%	9%	0.9%	32%
WN 4852 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:00	LGA 22:25	41%	16%	0.9%	19%
WN 4021 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:00	LGA 20:25	42%	14%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON