Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 41% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1336 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:30	LGB 19:35	29%	8%	0.6%	42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165	5h 55m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 07:55 → LGB 09:05WN 276	5h 00m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505	6h 05m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:00 → BNA 11:50WN 5062	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427	8h 50m	96%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268	4h 00m Oakland	OAK 14:30 → LGB 15:55WN 2951	9h 05m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260	6h 00m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:00 → AUS 10:00WN 4172	3h 15m Austin	AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915	7h 10m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413	9h 00m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 3563	50m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259	5h 15m	64%	49%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:20 → PHX 15:45WN 4129	55m Phoenix	PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55WN 149	4h 35m	63%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON