Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 801 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 801 DAL 07:40 → MAF 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1341 DAL 21:50 → MAF 23:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 801 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:40	MAF 09:00	5%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 4579 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:45	MAF 12:55	12%	2%	0.7%	80%
WN 488 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:10	MAF 17:25	27%	6%	0.7%	47%
WN 1341 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:50	MAF 23:10	35%	7%	0.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON