Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4631 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4631 DAL 06:05 → MCI 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4387 DAL 21:15 → MCI 22:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4631 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	MCI 07:35	4%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 1343 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:35	MCI 10:10	8%	2%	0.7%	95%
WN 4327 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:00	MCI 13:30	20%	4%	0.7%	73%
WN 5 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:55	MCI 15:25	22%	4%	0.7%	42%
WN 1347 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:55	MCI 00:35	32%	6%	0.7%	38%
WN 3068 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:55	MCI 17:25	32%	7%	0.7%	58%
WN 4387 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:15	MCI 22:50	37%	8%	0.6%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON