Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1434 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1434 DAL 06:05 → MCO 09:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 965 DAL 17:45 → MCO 21:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1434 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	MCO 09:45	3%	1%	15.5%	100%
WN 1349 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:30	MCO 11:10	8%	2%	16.7%	83%
WN 1725 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:10	MCO 12:50	9%	3%	17.3%	81%
WN 1540 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:00	MCO 13:40	13%	4%	18.9%	58%
WN 1352 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:05	MCO 18:50	29%	8%	17.3%	23%
WN 4405 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:30	MCO 00:15	29%	8%	16.7%	52%
WN 463 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:35	MCO 22:15	31%	11%	17.4%	35%
WN 965 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:45	MCO 21:30	34%	11%	17.4%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON