Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1355 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1355 DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 36 DAL 16:50 → MDW 19:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1355 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	MDW 08:15	5%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 1356 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	MDW 10:45	9%	2%	0.7%	80%
WN 1357 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:05	MDW 12:20	11%	2%	0.8%	85%
WN 1032 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:05	MDW 14:15	22%	4%	0.7%	58%
WN 1358 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:05	MDW 16:20	23%	5%	0.8%	60%
WN 1359 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:50	MDW 01:05	30%	8%	0.7%	34%
WN 107 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:50	MDW 22:05	33%	9%	0.7%	36%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:50	MDW 19:05	35%	8%	0.7%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON