tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 888 at 12:25, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 888 Southwest Flight history → DAL 12:25 MEM 13:50 18% 4% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355 1h 50m Chicago MDW 10:05 → MEM 11:40WN 2824 5h 40m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628 2h 15m Houston HOU 09:25 → MEM 10:55WN 4013 4h 55m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296 3h 30m Denver DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698 7h 55m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 5h 23m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501 7h 25m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939 5h 57m 95% 75%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45WN 41 2h 50m Houston HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:15WN 4745 5h 45m 98% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON