Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1361 at 11:30, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1361 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:30	MIA 15:20	26%	7%	2.1%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → MCI 07:35WN 4631	2h 25m Kansas City	MCI 10:00 → MIA 14:10WN 2575	7h 05m	99%	75%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265	3h 10m Austin	AUS 11:50 → MIA 15:40WN 362	7h 05m	98%	72%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581	6h 50m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 56m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274	3h 40m St Louis	STL 12:45 → MIA 16:25WN 2901	8h 05m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:03 → MIA 18:20DL 1323	7h 13m	99%	68%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 11:45 → MIA 14:20WN 4737	7h 20m	99%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 16m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON