Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1466 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1466 DAL 06:05 → MSY 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2134 DAL 20:50 → MSY 22:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1466 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:05	MSY 07:30	3%	1%	2.3%	96%
WN 3312 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	MSY 08:25	6%	2%	2.2%	88%
WN 3790 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:55	MSY 14:25	22%	5%	0.9%	57%
WN 4793 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:15	MSY 16:40	27%	6%	0.9%	49%
WN 1370 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:00	MSY 23:30	32%	11%	7.1%	58%
WN 2134 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	MSY 22:20	33%	11%	7.8%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON