Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1268 at 08:50, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:50	OAK 10:30	9%	2%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → OAK 09:45WN 3303	5h 45m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → OAK 10:10WN 1254	6h 05m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:10WN 1326	1h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → OAK 10:20WN 3014	6h 20m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:55 → PDX 09:55WN 1377	2h 30m Portland	PDX 12:25 → OAK 14:10WN 4928	8h 15m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393	2h 45m San Diego	SAN 09:50 → OAK 11:25WN 4166	7h 15m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	8h 40m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	3h 55m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	8h 25m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → OAK 12:30WN 322	7h 05m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:30 → LAX 16:40WN 3161	1h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 17:45 → OAK 19:05WN 2418	5h 35m	73%	46%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:25 → SNA 17:30WN 4300	1h 05m Santa Ana	SNA 18:35 → OAK 20:00WN 3853	5h 35m	67%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON