Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4128 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4128 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:45	OKC 11:45	14%	3%	0.6%	68%
WN 198 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:10	OKC 23:15	33%	10%	0.6%	42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OKC 12:15WN 4114	6h 15m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	1h 10m Denver	DEN 08:10 → OKC 10:50WN 3010	4h 50m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	6h 07m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → OKC 12:20WN 344	6h 15m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 11:00 → OKC 15:10WN 3309	6h 20m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	6h 15m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	55m Denver	DEN 10:40 → OKC 13:15WN 1652	4h 35m	88%	74%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → OKC 00:30 +1WN 608	6h 35m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → HOU 21:40WN 57	1h 05m Houston	HOU 22:45 → OKC 00:10 +1WN 4641	3h 40m	74%	49%
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:10 → LAS 20:00WN 1323	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 21:05 → OKC 01:35 +1WN 4160	6h 25m	65%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON