Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1377 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:55	PDX 09:55	11%	2%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → PDX 10:25WN 4092	6h 25m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132	7h 35m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 53m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	2h 35m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667	7h 10m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → PDX 12:25WN 2809	8h 25m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 49m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	50m Sacramento	SMF 10:05 → PDX 11:35WN 949	5h 55m	84%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	2h 00m Denver	DEN 11:45 → PDX 13:25WN 4271	6h 45m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:20 → DEN 19:50WN 1303	1h 15m Denver	DEN 21:05 → PDX 22:50WN 1671	6h 30m	71%	49%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → PDX 16:55WN 2126	5h 50m	65%	41%
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → PDX 00:35 +1WN 199	6h 05m	60%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON