Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4329 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:45	PHL 12:05	9%	2%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274	55m St Louis	STL 10:00 → PHL 13:10WN 3222	4h 50m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 19m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:20WN 623	5h 20m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 13:40 → PHL 16:45WN 4351	7h 15m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	8h 00m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169	6h 05m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 15:20 → PHL 18:20WN 4948	7h 15m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	8h 01m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON