Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1379 DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3674 DAL 20:35 → PHX 21:05 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1379 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	PHX 06:30	3%	1%	0.7%	97%
WN 4410 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:50	PHX 09:20	11%	2%	0.7%	84%
WN 1166 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:25	PHX 10:55	14%	3%	0.8%	64%
WN 1382 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:10	PHX 12:35	24%	4%	0.8%	82%
WN 4129 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:20	PHX 15:45	32%	7%	0.9%	50%
WN 4258 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:50	PHX 19:15	36%	10%	0.8%	23%
WN 4972 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:15	PHX 22:45	39%	10%	0.9%	67%
WN 3674 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:35	PHX 21:05	40%	10%	0.9%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON