Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3796 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3796 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:35	PNS 11:25	9%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 1388 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:50	PNS 21:40	28%	9%	0.6%	33%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → MCI 07:35WN 4631	1h 35m Kansas City	MCI 09:10 → PNS 11:15WN 4593	5h 10m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 56m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:00 → AUS 10:00WN 4172	3h 55m Austin	AUS 13:55 → PNS 15:45WN 931	6h 45m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:15 → STL 11:00WN 1411	3h 55m St Louis	STL 14:55 → PNS 16:40WN 279	7h 25m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:10 → PNS 18:23DL 3059	6h 04m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:30 → HOU 08:45WN 3	3h 15m Houston	HOU 12:00 → PNS 13:30WN 4795	6h 00m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:45 → DEN 10:45WN 1300	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:45 → PNS 17:40WN 2264	7h 55m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON