tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1389 at 15:35, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1389 Southwest Flight history → DAL 15:35 RDU 19:15 34% 8% 0.7% 33%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 37m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280 1h 40m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → RDU 12:45WN 4442 5h 45m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519 1h 25m Nashville BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795 4h 40m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274 50m St Louis STL 09:55 → RDU 12:45WN 297 4h 25m 93% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356 2h 35m Chicago MDW 13:20 → RDU 16:15WN 4462 6h 45m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 5h 13m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:42 +1DL 2938 7h 43m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 7h 38m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DAL 17:55 → BNA 19:45WN 277 50m Nashville BNA 20:35 → RDU 23:15WN 4431 4h 20m 57% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON