Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 38% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 586 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:55	RNO 22:20	36%	10%	0.8%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → RNO 09:40WN 146	5h 40m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	3h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 10:05 → RNO 11:30WN 1007	7h 25m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 10:40 → RNO 12:10WN 4685	6h 45m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → RNO 12:55WN 5056	6h 10m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393	3h 20m San Diego	SAN 10:25 → RNO 12:00WN 4954	7h 50m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 14:50 → RNO 17:00WN 2876	8h 55m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 3563	3h 35m Denver	DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:40WN 4136	8h 05m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:00 → AUS 10:00WN 4172	4h 00m Austin	AUS 14:00 → RNO 15:25WN 4078	8h 25m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:25 → DEN 20:45WN 1304	55m Denver	DEN 21:40 → RNO 23:10WN 1696	5h 45m	63%	46%
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → RNO 23:40WN 287	5h 10m	60%	41%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:20 → PHX 15:45WN 4129	50m Phoenix	PHX 16:35 → RNO 18:20WN 3331	5h 00m	60%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON