Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1393 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1393 DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1395 DAL 20:50 → SAN 21:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1393 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	SAN 07:05	9%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 192 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:50	SAN 08:50	12%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 1394 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:50	SAN 12:45	28%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:50	SAN 18:45	40%	9%	0.7%	42%
WN 1395 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	SAN 21:50	40%	9%	0.7%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON