Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1396 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1396 DAL 07:20 → SAT 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2231 DAL 21:45 → SAT 22:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1396 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	SAT 08:25	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
WN 2617 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:50	SAT 10:55	8%	2%	0.7%	76%
WN 3940 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:20	SAT 13:25	17%	3%	0.7%	64%
WN 1400 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:25	SAT 14:30	18%	3%	0.7%	69%
WN 1401 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:00	SAT 17:05	24%	5%	0.7%	60%
WN 1402 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:30	SAT 19:35	30%	9%	0.7%	57%
WN 4415 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:55	SAT 21:00	33%	9%	0.7%	39%
WN 2231 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:45	SAT 22:55	34%	8%	0.7%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON