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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 910 at 13:55, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 910 Southwest Flight history → DAL 13:55 SDF 16:55 23% 5% 0.6% 47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356 2h 00m Chicago MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473 5h 25m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 4h 46m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519 1h 20m Nashville BNA 10:05 → SDF 12:00WN 670 4h 00m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 7h 27m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:30 → HOU 08:45WN 3 2h 30m Houston HOU 11:15 → SDF 14:25WN 2077 5h 55m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280 50m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297 5h 30m 88% 80%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 6h 42m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831 6h 03m 95% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON