Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1406 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:15	SEA 10:30	24%	3%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 30m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	9h 10m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 42m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → SEA 11:40WN 3330	7h 40m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274	2h 35m St Louis	STL 11:40 → SEA 13:55WN 3981	8h 35m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → SEA 13:50WN 814	7h 00m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	1h 45m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → SEA 12:55WN 1739	7h 15m	96%	75%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:05 → SEA 12:05WN 3051	8h 05m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	55m Chicago	MDW 17:15 → SEA 19:45WN 2890	7h 40m	74%	49%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:20 → DEN 19:50WN 1303	1h 20m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	6h 50m	73%	43%
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963	6h 25m	53%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON