Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 485 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:45	SFO 09:30	22%	8%	0.7%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	9h 24m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SFO 12:35WN 1546	8h 35m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 18:08 → SFO 20:05DL 517	9h 46m	96%	70%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192	2h 25m San Diego	SAN 11:15 → SFO 13:00WN 1677	7h 10m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:25 → BNA 14:15WN 1275	3h 00m Nashville	BNA 17:15 → SFO 19:55WN 673	9h 30m	99%	66%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076	3h 25m Burbank	BUR 16:30 → SFO 17:55WN 833	8h 00m	96%	64%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	1h 55m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SFO 13:20WN 1719	6h 40m	97%	64%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 09:55 → SFO 12:00WN 4603	8h 00m	100%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:25 → DEN 20:45WN 1304	55m Denver	DEN 21:40 → SFO 23:30WN 4303	6h 05m	63%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON