Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1408 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1408 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	SLC 07:40	4%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 4633 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:40	SLC 22:20	39%	10%	0.6%	25%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SLC 10:25WN 3339	5h 25m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:05 → SLC 11:45WN 4027	6h 45m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951	7h 25m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 45m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	2h 00m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SLC 13:25WN 1731	5h 45m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 11m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 11:40 → SLC 14:10WN 147	6h 20m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	8h 43m	95%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:40 → BNA 15:30WN 526	50m Nashville	BNA 16:20 → SLC 18:55WN 4791	6h 15m	68%	53%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:20 → DEN 19:50WN 1303	1h 05m Denver	DEN 20:55 → SLC 22:40WN 1737	5h 20m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON