Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4218 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4218 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:40	SMF 09:15	10%	2%	0.5%	71%
WN 4365 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:10	SMF 22:45	38%	11%	0.5%	27%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SMF 09:45WN 2885	5h 45m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860	6h 00m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	2h 00m Denver	DEN 09:00 → SMF 10:25WN 1739	6h 25m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:10WN 1326	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 09:30 → SMF 10:55WN 4454	6h 55m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 08:40 → SMF 10:20WN 4356	6h 10m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122	5h 45m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:55 → PDX 09:55WN 1377	2h 20m Portland	PDX 12:15 → SMF 13:45WN 3212	7h 50m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094	8h 40m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 22:40 → SMF 00:20 +1WN 4226	5h 50m	67%	44%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:35 → LAS 17:25WN 1322	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 18:30 → SMF 20:05WN 4032	5h 30m	70%	42%
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:25 → DEN 20:45WN 1304	50m Denver	DEN 21:35 → SMF 23:10WN 1744	5h 45m	59%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON