Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4300 at 16:25, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4300 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:25	SNA 17:30	33%	5%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 08:10 → SNA 09:30WN 3348	5h 30m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:05 → LAS 06:50WN 1318	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → SNA 10:20WN 187	6h 15m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	2h 35m Sacramento	SMF 11:50 → SNA 13:20WN 3831	7h 40m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	50m Denver	DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15WN 1745	5h 15m	89%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268	1h 35m Oakland	OAK 12:05 → SNA 13:35WN 3086	6h 45m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:25 → LAS 08:10WN 2964	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 10:30 → SNA 11:40WN 2092	6h 15m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 26m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	3h 20m Phoenix	PHX 12:40 → SNA 13:55WN 375	7h 05m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:20 → PHX 15:45WN 4129	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 16:45 → SNA 18:00WN 4510	4h 40m	68%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON