Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 274 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 274 DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4444 DAL 20:10 → STL 21:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 274 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	STL 09:05	6%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 1411 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:15	STL 11:00	9%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 1412 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:00	STL 14:45	24%	3%	0.6%	71%
WN 2921 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:25	STL 19:10	32%	6%	0.6%	55%
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:50	STL 00:40	32%	5%	0.6%	57%
WN 4444 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:10	STL 21:55	36%	6%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON