Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1415 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1415 DAL 06:10 → TPA 09:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1417 DAL 19:45 → TPA 23:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1415 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	TPA 09:35	4%	1%	17.1%	96%
WN 1416 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:10	TPA 19:40	36%	10%	16.6%	46%
WN 1417 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:45	TPA 23:15	40%	12%	11.1%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON