Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4445 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4445 DAL 08:25 → TUL 09:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 1419 DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4445 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:25	TUL 09:30	6%	1%	0.6%	81%
WN 4333 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:55	TUL 18:05	32%	8%	0.6%	55%
WN 1419 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:55	TUL 23:05	35%	8%	0.5%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON