tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3319 at 12:40, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3319 Southwest Flight history → DAL 12:40 TYS 15:45 22% 4% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519 1h 25m Nashville BNA 10:10 → TYS 12:00WN 4206 4h 00m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 53m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 4h 05m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 09m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 6h 53m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042 5h 25m 95% 76%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 10:45 → DEN 11:45WN 4394 2h 35m Denver DEN 14:20 → TYS 19:10WN 1768 7h 25m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 13:40 → BNA 15:30WN 526 3h 50m Nashville BNA 19:20 → TYS 21:15WN 694 6h 35m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283 1h 45m Baltimore BWI 20:55 → TYS 22:35WN 1125 6h 25m 88% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780 53m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 4h 13m 74% 59%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 16:40 → BNA 18:30WN 1277 50m Nashville BNA 19:20 → TYS 21:15WN 694 3h 35m 60% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON