tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 205 Southwest Flight history → DAL 10:00 VPS 11:55 13% 2% 0.7% 76%
WN 1421 Southwest Flight history → DAL 13:55 VPS 15:50 23% 4% 0.7% 49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092 6h 24m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 12:00 → VPS 13:20WN 246 7h 20m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083 6h 14m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 23m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 13:00 → STL 14:45WN 1412 2h 40m St Louis STL 17:25 → VPS 19:15WN 3988 6h 15m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:00 → BNA 16:50WN 5047 2h 50m Nashville BNA 19:40 → VPS 21:10WN 2982 6h 10m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 10:30 → HOU 11:45WN 23 3h 50m Houston HOU 15:35 → VPS 17:20WN 4108 6h 50m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 4h 50m 83% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON